There are many counterintuitive findings in international development cooperation that have emerged from research on development approaches.
It’s worth noting that these findings are not definitive and depend on context as well as the specifics of the programs and policies being implemented. Research on development is ongoing and new findings are emerging all the time.
How did counterintuitive findings change the narrative?
Microfinance
In the field of microfinance the dominant narrative was — and to some degree still is — that providing small loans to entrepreneurs in developing countries would lift them out of poverty and help them start or grow their own businesses. However, research has found that microfinance may not always have a significant impact on poverty reduction. This caused a shift towards a more differentiated view on microfinance for development.
Example: Banerjee, S. B., & Jackson, L. (2016). Microfinance and the business of poverty reduction: Critical perspectives from rural Bangladesh. Human Relations.
From the abstract: “We found microfinance led to increasing levels of indebtedness among already impoverished communities and exacerbated economic, social and environmental vulnerabilities. Our findings contribute to the emerging literature on the role of social capital in developing entrepreneurial capabilities in poor communities by highlighting processes whereby social capital can be undermined by market-based measures like microfinance.”
Free school uniforms and textbooks
The dominant idea was that providing free school uniforms and textbooks to children in developing countries would increase school attendance and improve educational outcomes. But research has found that this is not always the case and it led to a more holistic look at the factors that influence school attendance and educational outcomes.
Example: Do free school uniforms help children stay in school? by Muthoni Ngatia and David Evans, June 13, 2018. The article also provides links to other experiences and studies.
From the blog piece: “Providing free school uniforms decreased absenteeism to 13% in the initial years of the program. That means that providing school uniforms cut absenteeism by 37%. For the poorest children, the effects were even bigger. (…) we returned to the same schools eight years later to see if the children who received uniforms were better off than other children. The result? No clear pattern of long-term effects. School uniforms made a dent in school absenteeism, but they weren’t enough, by themselves, to change the long-term path for these children.”
Cash transfers
The common conceptualization was that in-kind aid, such as food aid, was more effective at reducing poverty than giving cash directly to individuals or households. Then research has shown that cash transfers can very well be more effective resulting in a greater emphasis on cash transfers as a tool for poverty reduction.
Example: Saeed, Muhammad Kashif and Hayat, Muhammad Azmat (2020): The Impact of Social Cash Transfers on Poverty in Pakistan-A Case Study of Benazir Income Support Programme.
From the abstract: “The findings show that there is no significant relationship between BISP (the Benazir Income Support Programme) cash transfer and poverty when the full dataset is used and a negative but economically insignificant relationship when only people from the bottom consumption quintiles are considered. Based on these findings, a way forward in terms of future research and making necessary modifications in the programme design of BISP is suggested.”
Incentivizing farmers
The dominant narrative was that incentivizing farmers in developing countries to use modern seed varieties and fertilizer would lead to increased productivity and economic growth. Having a closer look revealed that it can also lead to increased use of harmful chemical inputs and this obviously can have negative environmental impacts. This brought about a more sustainable and participatory approach to agriculture development.
Example: Green Revolution: Impacts, limits, and the path ahead.
From the abstract: “A detailed retrospective of the Green Revolution, its achievement and limits in terms of agricultural productivity improvement, and its broader impact at social, environmental, and economic levels is provided. Lessons learned and strategic insights are reviewed as the world is preparing a “redux” version of the Green Revolution with more integrative environmental and social impact combined with agricultural and economic development. Core policy directions for Green Revolution 2.0 that enhance the spread and sustainable adoption of productivity-enhancing technologies are specified.”
Community-driven development
For a while the widely-shared opinion was that top-down, externally-imposed development projects were more effective at promoting sustainable development than community-driven development approaches. Then studies indicated that community-driven development approaches can actually be more impactful, which has led to a greater emphasis on empowering local communities to identify and implement their own development projects. Today that in turn is questioned again.
Example: Community Based (and Driven) Development: A Critical Review, 2004
From the abstract: “The authors find that projects that rely on community participation have not been particularly effective at targeting the poor. There is some evidence that CBD/CDD projects create effective community infrastructure, but not a single study establishes a causal relationship between any outcome and participatory elements of a CBD project. Most CBD projects are dominated by elites and, in general, the targeting of poor communities as well as project quality tend to be markedly worse in more unequal communities. (…) Overall, a naive application of complex contextual concepts like participation, social capital, and empowerment is endemic among project implementers and contributes to poor design and implementation. In sum, the evidence suggests that CBD/CDD is best done in a context-specific manner, with a long time horizon, and with careful and well-designed monitoring and evaluation systems.”
Infrastructure development
For a long time there was this idea that building infrastructure such as roads and bridges would bring economic development and benefits to local communities. Studies have found that the logic might be a bit simplistic and there can also be substantial negative impacts on local communities and ecosystems if not done in a sustainable and participatory manner. This insight has led to a shift in the narrative towards a more sustainable and participatory approach to infrastructure development.
Example: A key proponent of infrastructure being the most important driver of development is Jeffrey Sachs, an American economist and Director of the Centre for Sustainable Development at Columbia University. He argued his case in his bestselling 2006 book “The End of Poverty, Economic Possibilities for our Time“, which comes with a forward by the Bono who had accompanied on his travels to Africa.
Rural electrification
The dominant narrative was that increasing access to electricity in rural areas would lead to increased economic development and income growth. Researchers could not always substantiate this. We need to base our efforts on a more nuanced understanding of the role of electricity in rural development.
Example: forthcoming
Fertilizer subsidies
It was standard to believe that providing subsidies for fertilizer and other inputs to farmers in developing countries would naturally increase productivity and economic growth. Research has found though that this can lead to overuse, resulting in soil degradation and other negative environmental effects. Today it is standard to embed subsidies within a broader, more sustainable approach to agricultural development.
Example: forthcoming
Conditional cash transfers
The normal narrative was that conditional cash transfers, which require recipients to meet certain conditions such as sending their children to school, would be more effective at promoting development outcomes than unconditional cash transfers. Studies have found that they are not necessarily better and can even have negative impacts on recipient households and communities. Today it is imperative to have a look at the impact of different types of cash transfer programs on development outcomes before starting them.
Example: forthcoming
Foreign aid
Foreign aid is on a larger, government level what cash-transfer is on the household level. Many people thought—and many probably still think—that foreign aid in general was an effective tool for promoting economic growth and reducing poverty in developing countries. Clearly, many people are aware nowadays that there are negative impacts, such as distorting local markets and growing dependency. Besides foreign aid can easily fail to address the root causes of poverty. This finding has led to a shift in the narrative towards a more critical examination of the effectiveness of foreign aid in promoting development outcomes.
Example: forthcoming
What does the notion counterintuitive tell us about how our brain works?
The notion “counter-intuitive” refers to ideas or findings that go against our expectations or previous understanding. It suggests that our brain often relies on assumptions and mental shortcuts based on past experiences and prior knowledge, and may not easily accept information that contradicts these preconceptions. This highlights the importance of being open to new and unexpected ideas, and the role of critical thinking and evidence-based analysis in shaping our understanding of the world.
Is counterintuitive basically the same as something that was previously thought of as right now showing to be wrong?
Counterintuitive can mean something that was previously thought of as right now being shown to be wrong, but it can also refer to findings or ideas that are unexpected or surprising even if they don’t necessarily contradict previously held beliefs. In other words, it just goes against conventional wisdom or popular understanding.
So, while a counterintuitive finding may challenge previously held beliefs and lead to a reassessment of what was previously thought to be true, it is not necessarily equivalent to something being “wrong”. It simply means that the finding runs counter to what was previously expected or understood.
Counterintuitive insights can make for exciting content for your outreach
Counterintuitive insights can add excitement and interest to communications in international development cooperation by presenting new and surprising perspectives. They can engage audiences and encourage discussion by challenging commonly held beliefs and inspiring individuals to think critically about the issues at hand. The unexpected nature of these insights can help them stand out and grab attention, making them an effective tool for building interest and support for international development cooperation. By providing fresh information and promoting innovative solutions, counterintuitive insights can help to deepen understanding and inspire greater investment in this critical area.
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